Monday, April 25, 2011

Kaperoni Chat 4/23/11

Kaperoni] This has been an exciting week having Shabibi visit and do his presentation at the Chamber of Commerce.
[Kaperoni] You see, this is all part of the plan…lining up investment, etc. to come to Iraq and be part of the economic changes that soon will happen.
[Kaperoni] We all have seen the video I hope of Shabibi talking about the pending revaluation…And saying “very soon” in regards to the removal of the 3 zeros.
[Kaperoni] The event is on track…we are so close now.
[Kaperoni] You see, much of what Iraq is doing is preparing for that day. To lay the foundation sort of speak
[Kaperoni] An example has been the first 3 rounds of oil contracts…They have been working hard..drilling and capping wells getting them ready so post rv, Iraq can import the materials to get these wells
[Kaperoni] on-line at the new rate exchange rate. Once that is complete, they simply “turn on the wells” and production will increase.
[Kaperoni] Recent articles imply that Iraq will increase output from the current 2.7 mbpd, to ver 5 mbpd in 2012. You can see how the revaluation of the dinar simply cannot wait.
[Kaperoni] This applies to other areas as well, Iraq needs to build over 1 million homes next year, They need to construct power plants, and sewage and water facilities as well.
[Kaperoni] I want to also add, that Shabibi himself stated in December…
[Kaperoni] Iraq will pay all of it’s debt in 2011!
[Kaperoni] That is simply not possible without the revaluation of the Iraqi dinar
[Kaperoni] Now, today there was a great article
[Kaperoni] That was in essence once again, a discussion of the dinar and an explination to the people
[Kaperoni] All of this is simply moving at a snail pace without the currency revaluation and the buying power that it brings.
[Kaperoni] Here is a quote to support this…
[Kaperoni] “That the lifting of the three zeroes from the local currency will facilitate financial transactions between governmental institutions and global investment firms operating in Iraq”
[Kaperoni] That is as clear as it gets everyone
[Kaperoni] Now I am going to post several paragraphs from an economist that pertain to the revaluation…This may not the be actual rate, but clearly they are explaining the revaluation will not “initially” be high as some have stated…
[Kaperoni] Here is the first quote…
[Kaperoni] “Delete the zeros will address the economic crisis in the country”
[Kaperoni] I think we all know this
[Kaperoni] “In his view, economic d. Ali Abdul Rahman said the lifting of the zeroes will contribute to raise the value of the currency and reduce the rate of demand for hard currency,
[Kaperoni] Which is characterized by force and will to restore the balance between the value of local and foreign currency and give it market power at home and abroad.”
[Kaperoni] Now this next quote trys to give an example of the buying power and the new rate…
[Kaperoni] “Not to mention that this process will be in the interest of the Iraqi individual, for example, that the employee who receives 400.000 Dinars at the exchange rate in 1200
[Kaperoni] is its purchasing power in dollars $ 333 and if the strengthening of the dinar to the equivalent instance = 500 dinars to the dollar will become the purchasing power
[Kaperoni] $ 800 instead of $ 333 and this will be considered good achievement of the Central Bank that the check because the citizen will be the main driver of the economy of his country
[Kaperoni] and urges currently in the United States and Aruba and can buy more items with the same amount of 400.000 dinars because the currency has become a store of value and
[Kaperoni] this what is expected of the Central Bank of Iraq. It also will address the economic crisis in the country.,”
[Kaperoni] Clearly, they make two point here.
[Kaperoni] 1. no LOP
[Kaperoni] 2. increased buying power at that calculation which is just over 2 to $1
[Kaperoni] They conclude the article giving the people the piece of mind they need.
[Kaperoni] “experts said the central bank that the process of bringing new currency to replace the corollary old will be in the context of (strategic gradual long-term), so as to allow the coexistence
[Kaperoni] of both currencies in the context of adorable lets bring fine coin replaced by a new old as not to embarrass the impact of traumatic forces of interaction in the financial markets or the truth,
[Kaperoni] but it is hoped that this will contribute to replacement romantic League offer similar to the feelings of people about the prestige of their currency National, which is of the symbols of sovereignty.”
[Kaperoni] So, IMO just like the when they drew in the larger 3 zeros notes
[Kaperoni] this RV will also be gradual
[Kaperoni] Many of you will not care and cash out at the initial rate
[Kaperoni] many may want to ride this wave as they progress
[Kaperoni] but based on these articles i see this initial rate
[Kaperoni] and then a progression over time to a higher level and
[Kaperoni] that also allows them to draw in the remaining larger notes
[Kaperoni] 1000 dinar
[Kaperoni] if still out
[Kaperoni] 500 dinar
[Kaperoni] 250 dinar
[Kaperoni] etc.
[Kaperoni] I continue to feel we are very close to the revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar. There is no reason to feel otherwise as Iraq continues to move forward with its economic plan.
[Kaperoni] I believe the above quoted statements tells us there will not be the initial “high rate” so many feel we are about to see, but rather a more gradual “stepped” rv.
[Kaperoni] Now what does that mean? I think we will see a RV in the range of just over 1 to $1. Possibly as high as 2.25 to $1 Then, in several months, another “step” to bring
[Kaperoni] the dinar up to 3 to $1. This seems to correlate with the above statements. I do not see a straight rv for the dinar at 3+ initially. Though we will only know once it truly happens.
[Kaperoni] With the abundance of articles in recent days “informing” the people of Iraq, Shabibi’s own comments, and the abundance of projects just waiting to be implemented, one can say, we are at the cusp of Iraq’s economic boom.
[Kaperoni] Now, for a tidbit of rumor…
[Kaperoni] I have been informed that there is a “high level” CBI meeting in Iraq at 7:30 am Iraqi time. What is the context of that meeting, I do not know.
[Kaperoni] I think we all can be excited that this ride will end shortly, that is clear as stated by the CBI and is evident.
[Kaperoni] Have a great Easter Holiday.

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