Saturday, March 12, 2011

Med & Astro Guy Q&A: Dinar Speculator 3/12/11 10:50am

tudor: you have any news tonight Astro Guy? or just in to chat?
Astro Guy: I just got a quick word or two. I need to study the current news lil more in detail. First of all, my heartfelt prayers for our brothers and sisters in Japan. As I mentioned earlier the filling of the remaining ministries is not required for the RV/RI/RD. The moment PM and his core cabinet are sworn in, the GOI is seated. It is rather unprecedented to call the completion of remaining ministries being sworn in as “the goi getting seated only then”. This is not taguchi’s design of experiments but simple parliamentary system and so we can teach and preach in an easy way if we want. Medleys are good for music competition stages and may be even for the “idols”.
tudor: so gov’t was seated in Dec, right?
Astro Guy: But who ever thought they are likely to be adopted by S and S too. What one may see from M is decking the chairs and S is wetting the vaults.
Med: HEY DS
Astro Guy: Hopefully we may see the rate changes soon when the pawn reaches the 7th rank to become the queen in the next move ‘cos the bishops and knights are calling for a speedy sequence of actions. GN. Hello Med. Sorry for my cryptic sentences Med
NOT A PROBLEM. OK WE GOT ALL THE NICETIES OUT OF THE WAY, SO LET’S MOVE ON. I HAVE BEEN WATCHING ALL WEEK ONE ISSUE FOR MANY DAYS TRYING TO THINK WHAT IS THE POSSIBLE HOLDUP. I SEE PEOPLE FRUSTRATED, SOME JUST THINK “OH JUST DO IT AND ALL WILL BE GREAT.” YES FOR US, SURELY, BUT AS I KNOW AND MY GOOD FRIEND ASTRO KNOWS, WE ARE THE LAST CONCERN. IT IS THE PEOPLE OF IRAQ WHO IN THIS SITUATION THEY ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT NOW. GRANTED, IT IS MOVING FORWARD AT A FASTER PACE BECAUSE OF WHAT HAS RUN LIKE A WILDFIRE ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST AND BOTH THE IRAQI PEOPLE AND WE THE INVESTOR ARE GOING TO BE THE BENEFACTORS OF THIS WILDFIRE.
NOW I JUST WANTED TO ADD THAT BEFORE I FINISHED THE REST, ASTRO MAY HAVE ALREADY KNOWN THIS, BUT I DID NOT. WHAT I AM GOING TO SAY NEXT, THE MAJOR ISSUE THAT IS CREATING PROBLEMS FOR U.S. COMPANIES AND ACTUALLY MANY FOREIGN COMPANIES FROM ENTERING IRAQ IS THAT THE INVESTMENT LAWS THAT ARE NOW IN PLACE ARE ACTUALLY FROM THE SADAAM REGIME AND THE ORIGINAL CPA/COALITION PROVISIONAL AUTHORITY WHICH WAS A COMBO GOVT WITH US MILITARY AND A CIVILIAN AND IRAQI’S WHO BASICALLY WERE JUST THERE TO DO WHAT THE U.S. TOLD THEM TO DO. NONE OF THESE OLD LAWS WERE EVER ADDRESSED AND MOST IN SADAAMS TIME WERE NEVER PRO OUTSIDE INVESTMENT. THEY ALL WERE DIRECTED TOWARDS SADAAM BEING THE ONE WHO BENEFITED. NOW I AM SURE THE ONE THAT THE CPA HAD IN PLACE HAD TO BE VERY RESTRICTIVE, MOSTLY FOR THE PROTECTION OF THE VOLATILE SITUATION, AND TO KEEP THINGS AT A SLOW PACE SO THEY WERE NOT OVERWHELMED WITH COMPANIES RUNNING INTO IRAQ THAT WE COULD NOT REALLY ACCOUNT FOR, WHICH I AM SURE WE WERE LEARY OF BAD ELEMENTS COMING IN AND CREATING ISSUES FOR US.
NOW LIKE I HAVE SAID, I HAVE STUDIED AND READ FOR MANY DAYS. WHAT IS THE PROBLEM AND AS WE KNOW OR IS IN THE FORUMS, IRAQ JUST CANNOT AFFORD ON THEIR OWN TO REBUILD IRAQ. THE ESTIMATED INFRASTRUCTURE BILL IS AN ASTOUNDING $700 BILLION. IRAQ’S REVENUES YEARLY FROM OIL IS ABOUT $65 BILLION, GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE BILLION. AND THE MAJORITY OF THAT IS JUST TO RUN THE GOVT, PAY FOR 4 MILLION GOVT EMPLOYEES AND TO RUN ALL THE GOVT OWNED COMPANIES, TO SUPPORT ALL THE SOCIAL WELFARE AND NOT TO MENTION THE BILLIONS LOST TO CORRUPTION. AND ALSO THAT THEY HAVE MORE MINISTRIES THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. SO ALL THIS ASIDE, WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? TO ME, IT IS THE INVESTMENT LAWS, THAT THEY NEED TO REMOVE THE SADAAM REGIME LAWS OR INACTIVATE THEM ALONG WITH THE CPA INVESTMENT LAWS AND THEN PASS THE NEW INVESTMENT LAW THAT WILL EASE THE ACCESS FOR FOREIGN COMPANIES TO INVEST AND SETUP COMPANIES IN IRAQ. IT IS NOT THE ONLY ISSUE, BECAUSE NOT ALL THE PRIVATE SECTOR CAN OR WILL BE ADDRESSED BY JUST FOREIGN COMPANIES COMING INTO IRAQ AND PUTTING PEOPLE TO WORK.
NOW THIS IS WHERE ASTRO COMES IN, HE IS MY EXPERT ON THE REGION. AND EVEN THOUGH INDIA AND IRAQ ARE LIKE NIGHT AND DAY, I THINK THAT OR I HOPE THAT ASTRO CAN POSSIBLY TELL ME IF I AM WRONG ON THE NEXT PART. NOW ABOUT TWO YEARS AGO SHABIEF HAZIZZ, A FORMER FEMALE MP, CAME FORWARD AND SAID REVALUE THE DINAR, STOP SUBSIDIES AND LET THE IRAQI PEOPLE DEVELOP BUSINESS’S ON THEIR OWN, GIVE THEM THE CHANCE. NOW I BELIEVE THAT ALLOT OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR CAN BE MADE TO WORK BY WHAT I CALL PRIVATE VENDORS, THOSE WHO MAKE PRODUCTS ON THIER OWN, ENOUGH TO SELL IN THE STREET IN EITHER SHOPS OR SHOPS SET UP IN THE STREETS. A LOT LIKE THEY DO IN THE BAHAMAS AT THE STRAW MARKET. THEY ARE NOT GOING TO BE RICH BUT IT IS A WAY TO SUPPORT THERE FAMILIES, WHICH THEY SURELY ARE NOT DOING RIGHT NOW AND THIS ALL WILL BE ADDRESSED BY THE MOVE TO THE FREE MARKET ECONOMY.
NOW YES WE ALL KNOW THAT THE MOVE TO THE WTO WILL SURELY BRING AN RV. BUT I WILL BE HONEST, I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THE CATALYST. I THINK THE DIRE IMMEDIATE NEEDS OF THE IRAQI PEOPLE CANNOT BE RESOLVED BY THE WTO, THAT IMMEDIATE CHANGES IN THE INVESTMENT LAWS AND AN IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION OF THE FREE MARKET ECONOMY ALONG WITH DIRECTED PRESSURE TO PUSH THE PRIVATE SECTOR. ALONG WITH MOVING THE DINAR TO MIN A FOREIGN EXCHANGE CURRENCY IS THE BEST SOLUTION FOR THE IRAQI PEOPLE. AND TO DIVERT THE COUNTRY FROM BOILING OVER AGAIN IN THE NEXT 100 DAYS. OK I AM ALL DONE. TY
Astro Guy: I truly agree with both the need for passing investment laws to promote MNC (Multi-National Corporations) setting foot in industrial Iraq and as well promoting and nurturing Bourgeois economic development.
kelpie: Where or who does the changes to the investment laws?
PARLIAMENT DOES
kelpie: Has it, or will it, be on any upcoming agendas?
YES. IT IS PART OF THE 23 PARAGRAPHS FOR THE NEXT 100 DAYS
kelpie: …that’s right….
Astro Guy: same way WTO accession is a voluntary act of GOI and they continue to linger in observer status for another year if they wish to and hence it cannot be a catalyst as you rightly said.
TY ASTRO. THIS IS WHY I DID NOT SAY MUCH ALL WEEK. I JUST DON’T LIKE TO TALK TO SEE MYSELF IN PRINT. I LIKE TO SAY SOMETHING ONLY WHEN IT MEANS SOMETHING AND THIS WORKED OUT PERFECT FOR ME, THAT ASTRO CAME ON. I NEEDED TO HAVE HIM ON WHILE I DID THIS
indian 1: Are they moving to change these laws as we speak
THEY ARE ADRESSING THEM
kelpie: but the approval of the last cabinet members is still important, correct?
THEY ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MANY THERE ARE, KELPIE. TRULY I AM NOT REALLY THAT SURE. IT SEEMS THAT MUCH IS BEING DONE WITHOUT CONCERN FOR MALIKI OR WHO HE HAS IN THE MINISTRIES RIGHT NOW, AT LEAST FROM NAJAFI’S POINT OF VIEW OR PARLIAMENT’S. AND SURELY IT IS NOT A CONCERN ON THE STREETS OF IRAQ. THEY ARE NOT PROTESTING FOR THE LAST MINISTRIES TO FORM
kelpie: ok. I’m just trying to put checklists on things…lol
I HAVE A CHECKLIST IN THE FORUM. THESE ARE ALL ADRESSED AND IN LINE. I JUST POSTED IT HRS AGO AGAIN, REVAMPED. GOTTA READ. LOL
Astro Guy: reg small sectors, the irony is that I read in another place as observed by some that in general the work ethics in Iraq is very casual etc. God has created everyone equally with some talent or the other. And it (some form of talent) is there in Iraqis too. But for generations they have been kept like this. They must be encouraged to work hard and be entrepreneurial and enterprising.
THAT IS PERFECT ANALOGY ASTRO. IT IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD GO SOUR BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE NOT A LOT OF CHOICES ANYMORE, WITH UNEMPLOYMENT AND POVERTY AT RECORD HIGHS.
Astro Guy: It can only be done by a massive small loans and investment friendly laws for such. In India there were such actions take in the late 80s that led to the economic boom and surge in the 90s and and after.
MANY WILL HAVE TO BE SPOON FED HERE. YES THAT IS WHY I WANTED YOU TO GIVE THE ANALOGY OF HOW. I KNEW THAT YOUS HAD SIMILAR ISSUES AND WERE SUCCESFUL. BUT AS I SAID, INDIA AND IRAQ ARE LIKE NIGHT AND DAY AND IT COULD GO SOUR. YOUR COUNTRY TOOK ADVANTAGE OF IT AND MADE IT WORK. CAN THE IRAQI STREET?
indian 1: Even though it’s an oil boom?
THE PROBLEM IS, THE OIL IS NOT THE SAVING GRACE FOR EMPLOYMENT IT IS FOR ASSETS TO COVER THE RATE OF EXCHANGE AND PAY FOR THE GOI. BUT REMEMBER INDIAN THAT THE OIL IS GOI OWNED AND WHEN IN A FREE MARKET NO GOVT INTERVENTION, NO SUBSIDIES, SO THAT REVENUE WILL ONLY GO TO THE GOVT AND NOT IN AIDING THE FREE MARKET ECONOMY.
Astro Guy: Precisely. It is an ancient civilization and can really accomplish if only the govt can catch on the need of the hour and implement all the required laws. They need to encourage people to do thrive on their own. We have seen the models of their neighbors who lived on freebees.
HOPEFULLY THEY WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF BEING SICK AND TIRED OF BEING SICK AND TIRED AND RUN WITH THE OPPORTUNITY. THE DIVISION BETWEEN TWO CLASSES IS SO DEEP AND, AS I HAVE SAID, THIS HAS TO CHANGE AND A MIDDLE CLASS HAS TO EVOLVE.
Astro Guy: It is not good in the long run. Oil won’t last forever. We already hear that the Saudi oil reserves are beginning to dwindle.
THAT IS CORRECT
Astro Guy: exactly. That’s what US also would want.
NOW I KNOW THIS IS A VERY OLD EXAMPLE, BUT PEOPLE AND MINDSETS VERY SELDOM CHANGE, BUT THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN FRANCE IN THE LATE 1700′S. WHERE FINALLY THEY HAD ENOUGH AND TENS OF THOUSANDS OF THE ENTITLED DIDN’T MAKE IT TO THE 1800′S. THEY WERE ALL BEHEADED AND IT WAS AN ONSLAUGHT. NOW AT THE MOMENT IT IS NOT TO THAT POINT IN IRAQ BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO MAKE IT THAT WAY. ALL IT WOULD TAKE IS ONE MAJOR ISSUE WITH THE SECURITY FORCES OVER REACTING TO A MASS DEMONSTRATION AND IT WOULD SPREAD ALL ACROSS IRAQ. THIS IS WHY SO MANY IN PARLIAMENT ARE NOW SAYING WE NEED TO MOVE ON LEGISLATION EVERY SINGLE DAY WE ARE IN SESSION. THAT A LEGISLATIVE LAW HAS TO BE PASSED AT EVERY SESSION. LAST WEEK 80 MEMBERS SPOKE OUT, THIS WEEK IT IS OVER 100. NEXT WEEK WHAT WILL IT BE ALL THEY NEED IS AN ABOLUTE MAJORITY TO CONTROL THIS AND MOVE IT FORWARD
dinarham: My iraqi street source says that they are just DONE with the violence and lack of services
UMMM. THAT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE THEY JUST HAD A MAJOR PROTEST IN THE SQUARE AGAIN AND THE LACK OF SERVICES HAS NOT EVEN BEEN TOUCHED YET
Astro Guy: another read is. In order for a meaningful membership to WTO they need to trade both ways. Not just importing all and exporting oil alone. US, India, Japan, and Germany are all powerful trading countries in both ways. If Iraq is only going to export oil and import everything else then being in WTO is futile for them. In order to export they need to first bring in MNC and as well develop small enterprises.
YES THAT IS EXACTLY TRUE ASTRO. I READ THE REPORT BY THE WTO AND UPON ACCESSION TO THE WTO THEY REQUIRE THAT A COUNTRY HAS AT LEAST ONE PRODUCT THAT IS INTERNATIONALY ACCEPTED AND OIL IS NOT ONE. THEY REPORTED TO IRAQ THAT THEY HAVE NOT ONE. I MEAN IT COULD BE PAPER CLIPS THAT THEY SELL TO ALL OR MULTIPLE COUNTRIES. BUT THEY JUST DON’T EXPORT SOMETHING TO COUNTRIES THAT PUT THEM IN THIS SITUATION YET
Astro Guy: One example. I heard some years ago that there is an acute shortage of cement in middle east to cope with their development needs. Iraq can create cement industries and supply their neighbors and themselves.
Med (23:39:16):
YES, I SEE THAT A FRENCH COMPANY IS SUPPOSED TO COME IN AND WORK WITH THEM. IT IS SUPPOSE TO BE A HIGH QUALITY COMPARED TO WHAT THEY ARE USED TO BE PUTTING OUT. I TALKED TO A CONTRACTOR FRIEND IN IRAQ AND HE SAID THE QUALITY OF THE CEMENT THEY PRODUCE WAS SO INFERIOR
Astro Guy: they have the resources to make cement. But the French know how and expertise from alike is needed.
YES
cdjsilver51: Med sometimes when you use the term Free Market Economy it seems like you are saying they could move to a free market economy without revaluing their currency. Is that what you are saying or do the 2 go hand in hand?
YOU CANNOT HAVE A FREE MARKET ECONOMY WITHOUT A FOREIGN EXCHANGE CURRENCY
Astro Guy: ironically i worked in a cement plant construction in middle east myself some 28 years ago.
I HAVE POSTED THE ACTUAL INVESTOPEDIA EXAMPLE OR EXPLANATION SEVERAL TIMES IN THE FORUMS. IN A FREE MARKET, IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT SELLING PRODUCTS ON THE STREET THAT ARE MADE IN IRAQ. THEY ARE ABOUT IMPORTS THAT ARE SOLD ON THE STREETS BY VENDORS OR STORES AND WITH THAT THEY WILL NEED A FOREIGN EXCHANGE CURRENCY. IT IS SOMETHING THEY CANNOT ESCAPE. NO COUNTRY THAT IS AN ECONOMIC INFLUENCE DOES NOT HAVE A FOREIGN EXCHANGE CURRENCY. YOU CAN’T PAY FOR IMPORTS WITHOUT IT
indian 1: they concrete the Iraq’s would make would be slow drying, wouldn’t set up for months
NOW TOMORROW
Astro Guy): There is also an other misconceived notion that somehow the Emir of Kuwait can demand the rv in quid pro quo for settlement for their disputes. As i said earlier, committees will be formed and at a max an initial settlement of 2 % of their debt will be paid and the rest addressed to the committees to work out modalities. And a bilateral agree will be signed to settle amicably. That’s the maximum I expect from his visit in the next week.
IT IS NOW YES. IT WAS ONLY AN OPTION THAT WAS DISCUSSED LIKE WASN’T IT TWO YEARS AGO ASTRO
402raptor: so do you think the march 25th WTO meeting will have much impact on Iraq for an rv
WELL DOES ANYONE HAVE A ? FOR ASTRO OR ME? ANYTHING CAN RAPTOR, BUT I PERSONALLY THINK IT WILL BE THE LEGISLATIVE ACTION THAT WILL DO IT. AND THE MOVE TO DEVELOP THE PRIVATE SECTOR THAT WILL BRING THE RV, JUST AS WE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL. I GAVE MY OPINION
Astro Guy: I totally agree.
hoperv: I saw a timeline somewhere today stating that they would not finalize the WTO until mid 2012
TY ASTRO. IT COULD BE TRUE BUT WAS THAT NOT AN OLD ONE THAT WAS REPOSTED
Hoperv: may have been didn’t see a date
AS WE HAVE TO REALIZE, AND THIS HAS TO BE DRIVEN IN OUR MINDSET IN IRAQ, THIS IS A COUNTRY THAT IS UNLIKE ANY OTHER RIGHT NOW. THE DYNAMICS CHANGE DAILY AND BY THE HR AND BY THE MINUTE. SO MANY DEALS ARE TRYING TO BE MADE, SO MANY DECISIONS. PEOPLE LEAVING BLOCS, MOVING TO INDEPENDENT. SOME MOVING SO THERE CAN BE AN OPPOSITION
gator4ever: Forget about 2012 people are hot and want change NOW this is the new variable to the rv equation that we have not had in the past. As med would say we are standing on it.
THEY ARE MAKING A MASS MOVE TO WEED OUT CORRUPTION. I DO BELIEVE WE ARE STANDING ON IT. IT WS FROM 7 YRS AGO HOPE, THAT WAS YR 13 OF THE UNSC SANCTIONS. WE ARE NOW GOING TO YR 20. LOL.
Astro Guy: now on fun stuff and passion, what do you think of Michigan basketball this year and football next year with Brady Hoke.
OK. WELL GANG, OK ANY OTHER ?’S FOR US?

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